Does Precipitation Data Match the ‘Historic Drought’ Narrative?

by

Without a doubt, the drought we have been experiencing for the past several years is impacting lake water levels within the Woman Lake chain of lakes. However, there are some who are attributing low water levels exclusively to what they are calling a ‘historic multi-year drought.’ These folks refuse to consider the possibility that the new Girl Lake rock arch rapids (RAR) structure might, in some way, be actually contributing to the problem. They discount testimonies from those who have been on the lakes for 50 years or more who have stated they have “never seen low water levels like this” as selective memories of the past.

We decided it would be worthwhile to look at the official precipitation records to determine whether the ‘historic drought’ narrative actually holds up under scrutiny.

We accessed the Minnesota’s Department of Natural Resources (DNR) State Climatology Office website and selected the geographical area surrounding the Woman Lake chain watershed district using the map selection tool (see below):

The selection tool brought up the Birch Lake station readings along with the data going back to 1891. Here’s the explanation of the data from the webpage:

Obtaining a long-term precipitation data time-series can be a difficult and time-consuming process. Locating the nearest precipitation monitoring station to a site of interest often proves challenging. Once a nearby monitoring location is identified, retrieving the data, accounting for gaps in the record, and generating the summary statistics can provide further challenges.

By offering access to “synthetic” data, this application assists users in overcoming some the challenges inherent in assembling a precipitation data set. The synthetic data are made up of regularly-spaced grid nodes whose values were calculated using data interpolated from Minnesota’s outstanding, but spatially and temporally irregular, precipitation data base.

Precipitation data for target location:
county: Cass township number: 140N
township name: Birch Lake range number: 30W
nearest community: Hackensack section number: 13

precipitation totals are in inches

color key:
total is in lowest 30th percentile of the period-of-record distribution
total is => 30th and <= 70th percentile
total is in highest 30th percentile of the period-of-record distribution

multi-month totals:
WARM = warm season (May thru September)
ANN = calendar year (January thru December)
WAT = water year (Oct. previous year thru Sep. present year)
A ‘R’ following a monthly total indicates a provisional value.

To account for the effect of a multi-year drought, we calculated the 5-year running average of WAT and added it to the first column to the right of the year in the data table. We highlighted in red the values which were at or below the 5-year average experienced in 2025. The data reveals there have been a total of 54 years  (or 42% of the years included in the data) in which 5-year average WAT precipitation was at or below our most current level, including 8 times in the past 25 years. It seems the ‘historical drought’ is actually not that ‘historical’ after all.

Year5 YR WAT Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WARM ANN WAT
2026 0.38 1.06 0.77 2.86 0.83 4.58
202525.86 0.35 0.78 1.44 2.71 1.77 4.29 6.16 1.17 2.25 1.20 0.46 0.91 15.64 23.49 24.73
202427.41 0.43 0.62 0.83 2.34 5.65 7.78 2.25 4.03 0.21 0.94 2.03 0.84 19.92 27.95 30.37
202327.66 0.74 0.88 1.93 1.95 1.92 3.20 1.45 3.43 3.15 2.37 0.59 3.27 13.15 24.88 22.87
202227.76 0.33 1.19 1.20 3.48 4.82 4.06 3.27 2.56 1.36 0.78 1.57 1.87 16.07 26.49 31.72
202127.06 0.48 0.25 1.38 3.69 1.22 1.56 1.49 3.42 2.49 5.37 1.37 2.71 10.18 25.43 19.59
202030.16 1.22 0.16 0.22 1.25 0.98 3.41 7.28 8.50 1.22 1.90 0.98 0.73 21.39 27.85 32.52
201928.36 0.84 1.51 1.66 2.54 2.57 3.38 3.15 5.52 4.73 5.29 0.49 2.50 19.35 34.18 31.62
201828.10 0.45 1.16 1.00 0.61 1.63 4.91 4.70 2.39 3.24 3.61 0.55 1.56 16.87 25.81 23.33
201728.73 0.88 1.06 0.61 2.77 2.11 3.79 1.77 4.67 5.69 1.99 0.44 0.81 18.03 26.59 28.22
201628.68 0.78 0.57 1.39 2.34 1.64 3.47 9.08 5.58 4.66 1.24 2.00 1.63 24.43 34.38 35.09
201526.77 0.32 0.60 0.75 0.89 6.73 2.49 3.23 3.88 2.92 2.18 2.17 1.23 19.25 27.39 23.54
201428.16 0.61 0.71 0.66 3.61 3.78 7.75 2.09 3.74 1.20 0.83 0.42 0.48 18.56 25.88 30.31
201327.01 1.17 1.09 2.57 1.77 3.97 5.17 3.23 1.33 2.21 3.80 0.19 2.17 15.91 28.67 26.50
201226.21 0.47 0.55 1.97 3.98 4.07 9.06 2.98 2.52 0.40 1.85 1.17 0.97 19.03 29.99 27.97
201125.46 1.20 0.06 0.75 2.68 3.48 4.07 3.60 2.19 1.20 1.52 0.19 0.26 14.54 21.20 25.54
201026.11 0.65 0.45 0.82 0.86 2.60 3.09 4.14 6.37 4.74 3.94 0.86 1.51 20.94 30.03 30.48
200925.51 0.54 0.90 3.16 1.38 1.33 4.39 3.08 2.25 0.52 3.69 1.60 1.47 11.57 24.31 24.57
200825.54 0.02 0.50 0.45 4.13 1.50 4.01 1.36 0.59 3.99 4.24 1.12 1.66 11.45 23.57 22.50
200725.08 0.16 0.98 2.72 2.94 2.60 2.07 3.11 2.23 3.85 4.08 0.22 1.65 13.86 26.61 24.21
200625.86 0.18 0.96 1.57 1.86 5.27 2.98 1.74 1.91 3.96 1.56 0.85 1.14 15.86 23.98 28.77
200525.82 1.34 0.44 0.74 1.26 4.28 7.10 2.16 2.20 4.15 3.89 3.61 0.84 19.89 32.01 27.52
200425.02 0.78 0.65 1.38 1.00 3.48 0.96 5.09 1.61 7.23 2.32 0.47 1.06 18.37 26.03 24.68
200327.68 0.15 0.15 0.55 1.28 3.10 3.95 4.56 1.09 1.96 1.44 0.79 0.27 14.66 19.29 20.20
200229.33 0.33 0.25 1.06 1.45 2.32 5.76 4.52 3.84 2.52 2.61 0.30 0.50 18.96 25.46 28.12
200129.85 0.47 2.08 0.27 5.16 3.89 3.10 2.00 3.45 1.46 3.33 2.12 0.62 13.90 27.95 28.59
200029.85 0.25 1.18 1.99 1.77 3.14 3.96 3.33 4.27 2.10 1.96 3.97 0.78 16.80 28.70 23.53
199930.64 1.02 0.51 0.86 2.34 6.46 3.47 7.63 5.26 3.07 1.01 0.01 0.52 25.89 32.16 37.96
199828.37 1.06 0.61 1.03 1.55 4.10 5.84 5.21 1.21 3.01 4.11 2.01 1.22 19.37 30.96 28.46
199727.83 2.24 0.54 1.94 0.98 2.19 5.03 4.50 2.09 3.57 3.32 1.16 0.36 17.38 27.92 30.72
199626.30 1.94 1.54 1.41 1.19 1.45 2.32 2.86 2.06 5.00 3.85 1.67 2.12 13.69 27.41 28.59
199526.25 0.63 0.91 1.19 1.49 1.91 1.13 6.92 5.33 2.60 5.27 1.52 2.03 17.89 30.93 27.48
199424.90 1.84 0.55 0.73 2.85 1.35 6.37 4.79 2.32 1.99 4.09 0.90 0.38 16.82 28.16 26.58
199325.31 1.13 0.19 0.91 2.51 5.10 2.78 5.49 4.07 1.16 1.02 2.04 0.73 18.60 27.13 25.80
199224.92 0.48 0.81 1.48 1.74 1.07 5.55 2.46 4.00 2.01 0.28 1.16 1.02 15.09 22.06 23.07
199125.06 0.59 1.17 1.40 3.12 3.21 5.47 3.07 1.73 4.41 1.18 1.71 0.58 17.89 27.64 28.32
199026.06 0.98 0.89 3.09 2.11 0.95 4.33 1.45 2.38 1.50 2.81 0.32 1.02 10.61 21.83 20.72
198929.76 1.74 0.26 1.14 1.73 2.71 3.72 0.77 7.64 4.51 1.32 1.29 0.43 19.35 27.26 28.66
198828.63 1.65 0.07 2.64 0.51 1.45 2.20 2.18 6.70 3.62 0.93 2.30 1.21 16.15 25.46 23.82
198729.39 0.37 0.33 1.14 0.29 5.40 0.88 5.49 2.80 4.02 0.95 0.70 1.15 18.59 23.52 23.79
198629.95 0.37 0.57 2.32 5.01 2.04 3.87 5.58 3.32 5.18 0.83 1.89 0.35 19.99 31.33 33.32
198528.81 0.34 0.52 2.11 3.00 7.31 4.15 6.41 4.06 3.72 1.28 3.05 0.73 25.65 36.68 39.22
198425.58 0.49 0.56 0.75 1.90 2.34 5.81 1.32 2.16 2.10 6.30 0.35 0.95 13.73 25.03 22.99
198325.41 1.18 0.11 1.46 1.06 2.48 6.93 3.77 1.55 3.20 2.23 2.37 0.96 17.93 27.30 27.64
198227.29 1.12 0.52 2.09 2.69 4.54 2.32 3.87 1.39 2.35 4.28 1.22 0.40 14.47 26.79 26.58
198127.63 0.25 0.62 1.36 2.83 2.58 7.30 3.92 3.43 2.82 4.63 0.46 0.60 20.05 30.80 27.63
198025.55 1.54 0.59 0.94 0.35 0.64 3.83 3.08 4.53 2.41 1.51 0.67 0.34 14.49 20.43 23.08
197926.57 0.71 1.45 2.54 1.33 2.58 3.87 4.06 1.52 1.36 4.02 0.92 0.23 13.39 24.59 22.12
197827.94 0.37 0.27 0.97 2.12 3.27 5.95 4.78 8.02 3.18 0.86 0.99 0.85 25.20 31.63 37.02
197724.98 0.65 1.11 2.32 2.15 3.00 4.29 2.99 6.00 4.96 2.84 3.85 1.40 21.24 35.56 28.30
197626.81 1.13 0.25 1.32 1.27 0.39 5.45 1.68 1.15 1.02 0.15 0.18 0.50 9.69 14.49 17.25
197528.98 2.41 0.47 1.81 2.34 2.21 6.82 3.12 1.65 2.56 1.79 1.48 0.32 16.36 26.98 28.18
197427.65 0.60 0.35 0.80 3.03 3.94 2.97 3.71 3.85 0.65 1.98 1.97 0.84 15.12 24.69 28.96
197327.15 0.30 0.10 1.23 1.08 2.01 2.59 6.66 2.60 2.23 6.66 1.55 0.85 16.09 27.86 22.22
197227.99 0.92 0.74 1.30 1.68 4.25 2.82 7.75 6.79 2.25 1.70 0.43 1.29 23.86 31.92 37.46
197124.78 0.80 1.24 0.92 1.71 2.34 2.96 4.34 1.61 3.40 6.84 1.64 0.48 14.65 28.28 28.06
197025.27 0.26 0.20 1.08 4.21 1.78 3.33 1.52 0.66 1.44 5.82 1.75 1.17 8.73 23.22 21.56
196927.00 2.69 0.46 0.23 2.38 3.23 2.77 4.42 0.25 4.04 4.65 0.96 1.47 14.71 27.55 26.46
196827.44 0.76 0.02 1.37 4.30 2.10 7.20 2.61 1.70 3.70 3.41 0.37 2.21 17.31 29.75 26.43
196727.07 1.63 0.34 1.58 3.52 1.17 5.31 0.72 1.24 1.69 1.23 0.17 1.27 10.13 19.87 21.41
196628.86 0.89 0.81 3.63 2.74 1.67 3.25 5.31 6.51 0.65 2.53 0.88 0.80 17.39 29.67 30.47
196527.78 0.34 0.26 2.17 2.01 5.34 5.54 2.52 2.58 6.73 1.16 2.19 1.66 22.71 32.50 30.24
196426.39 0.36 0.48 0.93 4.03 1.72 5.12 3.35 5.98 4.14 0.35 1.34 1.06 20.31 28.86 28.67
196326.64 0.12 0.92 1.58 3.26 2.66 5.23 3.72 4.16 1.75 0.64 1.26 0.66 17.52 25.96 24.58
196225.85 0.58 1.44 0.81 2.47 7.47 3.20 4.08 3.65 4.01 0.54 0.25 0.39 22.41 28.89 30.35
196125.35 0.22 0.31 0.26 3.17 2.71 1.05 5.46 2.33 7.07 1.12 0.75 0.77 18.62 25.22 25.06
196024.33 0.70 0.08 0.27 4.24 4.07 2.67 1.99 3.71 1.61 0.87 0.83 0.78 14.05 21.82 23.30
195924.68 0.39 0.29 0.24 0.81 4.41 4.41 6.49 5.13 3.66 1.90 0.82 1.24 24.10 29.79 29.90
195823.51 0.49 0.00 0.30 1.04 2.00 5.37 2.91 4.49 1.67 1.28 2.33 0.46 16.44 22.34 20.66
195726.15 0.31 0.68 1.44 2.44 2.92 6.88 4.51 1.28 3.32 1.10 0.95 0.34 18.91 26.17 27.83
195626.56 0.84 0.17 1.28 1.42 3.28 1.15 2.97 5.16 0.73 1.37 1.73 0.95 13.29 21.05 19.97
195528.45 0.54 1.61 0.76 1.52 3.30 3.06 7.70 2.21 2.23 0.82 1.06 1.09 18.50 25.90 25.06
195428.76 1.08 1.27 1.35 2.29 3.07 1.89 4.35 2.83 2.17 1.53 0.51 0.09 14.31 22.43 24.03
195329.57 0.94 0.48 0.77 3.14 6.16 6.05 3.51 8.54 3.01 0.65 1.19 1.89 27.27 36.33 33.85
195227.89 1.15 0.11 1.30 0.44 0.70 4.98 7.85 6.35 0.28 0.17 0.93 0.15 20.16 24.41 29.89
195127.04 0.49 1.29 2.09 2.10 3.81 3.11 1.91 5.75 4.38 3.26 1.52 1.95 18.96 31.66 29.42
195026.82 1.91 0.08 1.68 3.25 4.67 2.63 3.37 1.25 2.15 2.26 1.18 1.05 14.07 25.48 26.59
194926.36 0.96 0.62 0.43 0.37 4.45 3.63 11.02 3.03 0.87 3.81 1.06 0.73 23.00 30.98 28.12
194828.18 0.78 1.52 0.96 4.03 0.48 5.30 4.40 2.87 1.41 0.77 1.05 0.92 14.46 24.49 25.44
194728.19 0.20 0.31 0.45 2.70 2.45 4.27 0.57 4.21 3.63 1.18 2.04 0.47 15.13 22.48 25.61
194628.82 0.59 0.75 2.13 1.30 2.97 7.63 4.13 2.39 4.11 4.31 1.35 1.16 21.23 32.82 28.33
194529.94 0.55 1.09 1.70 2.89 0.91 3.28 2.61 3.52 5.05 0.71 1.02 0.60 15.37 23.93 24.31
194429.64 0.38 0.19 0.91 1.53 5.62 7.93 5.56 8.10 4.70 0.16 2.38 0.17 31.91 37.63 37.23
194325.99 0.73 0.91 1.53 1.39 6.43 5.63 2.06 2.66 0.65 1.38 0.89 0.04 17.43 24.30 25.48
194225.86 0.24 0.28 1.55 3.52 5.63 3.99 3.37 6.21 2.15 1.74 0.52 1.23 21.35 30.43 28.77
194125.84 1.07 0.34 1.20 3.37 4.28 4.78 1.33 5.35 5.20 1.37 0.07 0.39 20.94 28.75 33.89
194021.84 0.31 0.71 2.33 4.38 2.40 2.98 3.23 3.37 0.82 4.42 2.30 0.25 12.80 27.50 22.83
193922.71 1.23 1.18 0.71 0.32 1.59 5.68 0.45 3.64 1.09 1.84 0.10 0.36 12.45 18.19 18.96
193822.60 0.61 0.63 1.41 3.26 7.67 2.27 2.11 1.86 3.19 0.57 2.01 0.49 17.10 26.08 24.87
193721.67 1.17 1.42 0.28 2.76 4.09 2.26 7.93 3.25 2.19 0.46 0.66 0.74 19.72 27.21 28.66
193620.21 0.54 1.15 0.65 0.95 2.04 1.50 0.36 2.06 0.95 0.32 1.06 1.93 6.91 13.51 13.89
193521.62 1.20 0.03 1.63 2.78 1.96 4.06 5.79 4.82 1.27 2.11 0.95 0.63 17.90 27.23 27.16
193419.96 0.42 0.29 0.59 1.17 1.74 3.80 1.93 1.77 1.85 2.27 0.59 0.76 11.09 17.18 18.44
193319.30 0.89 0.75 1.54 1.54 5.72 1.43 1.09 1.35 2.18 2.63 0.98 1.27 11.77 21.37 20.21
193220.18 0.87 0.61 0.62 1.88 3.76 2.82 2.09 3.42 0.80 1.42 1.95 0.35 12.89 20.59 21.35
193121.35 0.08 0.14 1.16 0.56 2.59 5.61 3.88 2.17 1.71 1.69 2.49 0.30 15.96 22.38 20.95
193021.16 0.56 1.58 1.03 0.87 3.23 4.17 1.93 0.85 1.29 0.72 2.04 0.29 11.47 18.56 18.85
192922.30 1.29 0.23 1.16 0.85 1.64 1.07 0.90 1.61 2.52 2.24 0.33 0.77 7.74 14.61 15.14
192823.75 0.41 0.19 1.01 1.49 0.62 3.74 3.83 6.12 3.61 2.81 0.31 0.75 17.92 24.89 24.63
192724.00 0.87 0.93 1.89 1.73 3.53 2.95 3.17 5.00 1.85 1.42 1.29 0.90 16.50 25.53 27.18
192622.06 1.17 0.35 0.96 0.12 1.10 2.35 2.16 3.22 6.01 2.60 1.63 1.03 14.84 22.70 19.99
192522.39 0.48 0.69 0.67 2.34 1.74 5.93 2.49 3.73 4.26 1.07 1.13 0.35 18.15 24.88 24.55
192422.71 0.25 0.76 0.76 1.65 2.29 3.30 4.09 4.40 3.53 0.93 0.64 0.65 17.61 23.25 22.38
192323.83 1.12 0.95 0.78 1.68 2.64 6.70 3.31 1.10 1.53 0.57 0.29 0.49 15.28 21.16 25.92
192221.63 0.34 1.78 0.88 2.79 2.68 3.14 0.82 1.57 1.97 1.41 3.75 0.95 10.18 22.08 17.46
192121.50 0.51 0.26 1.52 2.23 3.58 4.01 3.05 1.20 3.69 0.33 0.27 0.89 15.53 21.54 21.65
192022.99 1.05 0.40 2.79 1.17 3.16 5.37 3.37 1.79 1.95 0.81 0.32 0.47 15.64 22.65 26.13
191922.03 0.72 0.75 0.75 1.34 2.90 5.63 4.59 5.14 1.66 2.61 2.17 0.30 19.92 28.56 28.00
191822.80 0.42 0.19 0.27 1.02 3.08 0.86 3.41 2.19 1.09 1.55 1.84 1.13 10.63 17.05 14.90
191725.09 0.45 0.89 0.75 2.10 0.14 2.61 3.29 1.55 3.65 1.56 0.07 0.74 11.24 17.80 16.82
191626.06 1.38 0.33 1.29 2.18 3.71 4.71 2.44 6.24 2.38 0.84 0.07 0.48 19.48 26.05 29.08
191524.99 1.18 0.77 0.25 1.02 2.45 6.29 3.26 0.91 2.07 2.73 1.27 0.42 14.98 22.62 21.36
191424.54 0.61 0.36 1.09 2.67 0.80 11.12 1.30 4.16 3.95 2.46 0.39 0.31 21.33 29.22 31.82
191323.50 0.26 0.13 0.90 1.84 3.29 4.31 7.14 2.74 3.65 4.78 0.94 0.04 21.13 30.02 26.38
191223.27 0.30 0.16 0.33 1.02 4.20 1.43 3.17 4.60 2.64 0.77 0.37 0.98 16.04 19.97 21.67
191125.02 0.33 0.81 1.14 1.64 3.41 2.85 3.85 4.32 2.97 1.47 1.57 0.78 17.40 25.14 23.73
191027.18 0.43 0.67 0.27 2.59 1.26 1.04 3.08 1.15 3.54 1.20 0.56 0.65 10.07 16.44 19.08
190930.26 0.73 0.46 0.28 2.29 1.26 1.37 7.53 7.40 2.34 2.25 1.48 1.32 19.90 28.71 26.62
190829.83 0.18 1.11 1.45 1.84 5.30 5.38 2.77 1.76 3.14 1.41 1.23 0.32 18.35 25.89 25.24
190731.37 1.48 0.37 1.14 1.48 3.61 4.53 2.28 4.82 3.83 1.27 0.59 0.45 19.07 25.85 30.44
190631.61 1.50 0.09 1.02 1.73 5.32 6.31 2.46 6.25 4.54 2.40 3.25 1.25 24.88 36.12 34.50
190530.04 0.28 0.26 0.72 2.38 6.00 8.58 5.94 3.15 3.33 2.82 2.26 0.20 27.00 35.92 34.50
190428.05 0.14 1.22 2.20 1.76 1.37 3.28 3.18 1.84 4.74 3.06 0.15 0.65 14.41 23.59 24.49
190330.21 0.64 0.54 1.42 2.79 4.25 1.41 3.81 5.25 5.74 3.50 0.43 0.83 20.46 30.61 32.92
190229.17 0.33 0.88 1.09 1.40 7.63 3.76 3.96 6.61 0.78 3.98 1.61 1.48 22.74 33.51 31.62
190129.15 0.14 0.29 2.37 2.34 1.12 8.77 4.72 1.33 1.36 3.54 0.95 0.69 17.30 27.62 26.67
190029.34 0.41 0.30 0.77 0.62 0.51 0.70 4.61 8.81 4.11 2.89 0.62 0.72 18.74 25.07 24.56
189929.95 0.65 0.36 0.77 2.22 6.14 5.96 3.60 9.52 2.48 2.84 0.32 0.56 27.70 35.42 35.27
189827.29 0.13 0.79 1.33 1.17 3.73 6.88 5.43 3.95 2.03 2.32 0.79 0.46 22.02 29.01 27.73
189726.64 2.26 2.09 1.65 1.62 1.06 6.58 7.68 1.51 1.09 1.38 0.37 0.54 17.92 27.83 31.54
189625.12 1.41 0.49 1.66 5.67 6.73 3.80 2.24 2.64 1.86 2.49 2.80 0.71 17.27 32.50 27.59
1895 0.25 0.47 0.28 0.70 3.93 6.35 3.85 2.15 3.50 0.18 0.74 0.17 19.78 22.57 27.60
1894 0.82 0.24 2.45 4.50 3.99 3.17 0.29 1.06 2.63 4.51 0.57 1.04 11.14 25.27 21.98
1893 1.51 0.90 1.42 3.79 2.48 3.40 3.07 4.58 1.45 1.13 0.75 0.95 14.98 25.43 24.50
1892 0.26 0.73 1.11 2.51 5.86 2.05 3.50 4.34 0.64 0.24 1.41 0.25 16.39 22.90 23.93
1891 0.45 1.24 1.38 1.37 1.16 3.51 3.62 3.20 3.25 0.79 0.60 1.54 14.74 22.11
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